I'm going to start a regular feature on the blog assessing the Hall of Fame chances of a variety of borderline players. I'm going to try not to focus on the obvious candidates (Maddux, Pujols, etc.) and instead discuss the guys with question marks.
First up: David Ortiz.
Ortiz has two things working for him and two things working against him:
For:
1. Clutch play and postseason success
2. Big seasons for a famous, winning team
Against
1. Late start
2. No defensive value
Let's take those one at a time:
Clutch play and postseason success
If you look at his overall postseason statistics, you'll realize they don't differ greatly from his regular-season production: .317 BA, .418 OBP, .587 SLG in the postseason vs. .288, .382, .554 in the regular season. He clearly steps up his game in the playoffs and World Series, but it's not like he goes hog wild.
Still, his performance in the 2004 ALCS alone has cemented his reputation in the annals of clutch hitting. He drove home the winning run in extra innings two days in a row, and he notched 11 RBIs overall. He did just as well in that year's Division Series. And in the 2007 Division Series, he was lights out: an .846 on-base percentage (!) and 1.571 slugging percentage (!!!).
Big Seasons for a Successful Team
Just check out his entry on Baseball-Reference.com and pay particular attention to his numbers since joining the Red Sox in 2003. He's finished in the top 5 in MVP voting every year from 2003 through 2007, and his team has made the postseason four times. "Big Papi" was one of the key cogs in the the most successful Red Sox machine since 1918.
Now the negatives.
Late start
This isn't totally accurate. He actually came up with the Twins in 1997 at age 21. If he had started producing big seasons within the next three years, as many Hall of Famers do, then he would be a no-brainer. But the Twins released him at age 26 after he failed to live up to their expectations. Did they give him enough of a chance to succeed? Probably not. But the fact that he was 27 before he established himself as a star works against his Hall of Fame chances because he probably won't achieve magic numbers like 500 home runs or 1500 RBIs.
With a body like his (he's listed at 6-4, 230 pounds, but I suspect he's more like 250), he's a huge injury risk. Look at Mo Vaughn, a very similar player in both skills and body type. He was washed up at 34. Baseball history is filled with big sluggers whose careers fall apart after age 34 or so. Carlos Delgado is in the same boat.
Only 32 now, Ortiz may very well continue producing into his late 30s. If he hits 35 homers a year for the next 5 years, or if he'd done it from age 22 through 26, he would be a lock for the Hall. I'm just saying the odds are against him.
No defensive value
Ortiz has spent 80% of his career at the DH spot, and that percentage only figures to go higher as time goes on since he almost never plays first base anymore. That doesn't necessarily doom him, of course, because the Hall of Fame is only now beginning to sort out how it deals with the first generations of players who came up in the DH era. I think it simply means his road will be tougher than players who contributed both offensively and defensively.
Bottom line
I think Ortiz needs at least 400 career home runs to even have a chance. He's about 125 shy, but at his current rate, he could reach that mark in three injury-free seasons. With his injury risk and his probably natural decline in skills, I would place his chances of doing that at about 50%.
Even 400 home runs would be kind of low for a 1B/DH in this modern lively ball era, but I think HOF voters would fondly remember his smile, his clutch play, and his association with the first Red Sox championships in 86 years, and vote him in on the second or third ballot.
If he somehow reached 500 home runs, he'd be a lock, but that's a very tall order.
Big Papi is very easy to root for, so I'll be on his side.
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Friday, May 9, 2008
Stengelese
Today I'm going to talk about Casey Stengel, the legendary player and manager for the Dodgers, Yankees, and Mets.
Through six decades in baseball, Stengel was known as both clown and genius, prankster and innovator. During his playing days, he once doffed his cap to let a bird fly out. Another time, he supposedly disappeared into an outfield drainage hole, only to reappear in time to make a play.
But it's his skill with the English language that makes him one of the most lovable characters in baseball history. Some examples:
Want more? Go here.
Through six decades in baseball, Stengel was known as both clown and genius, prankster and innovator. During his playing days, he once doffed his cap to let a bird fly out. Another time, he supposedly disappeared into an outfield drainage hole, only to reappear in time to make a play.
But it's his skill with the English language that makes him one of the most lovable characters in baseball history. Some examples:
“I don’t know if he throws a spitball, but he sure spits on the ball.”
“I was pitching batting practice and they told me not to throw so hard. I wanted to impress the manager, so I threw as hard as I could. Then hitters commenced hitting balls over buildings. Then I threw harder and they hit the ball harder. Then, I told the manager I was really an outfielder.”
“If we’re going to win the pennant, we’ve got to start thinking we’re not as good as we think we are.”
“Most people my age are dead.”
“When a fielder gets a pitcher into trouble, the pitcher has to pitch himself out of a slump he isn’t in.”
“There comes a time in every man’s life, and I’ve had plenty of them.” (A quote that also appears on his gravestone.)
Want more? Go here.
Thursday, May 8, 2008
The Meal Ticket
A little "This Date in Baseball History" for you today:
Let me tell you more about Carl Hubbell.
Known as both "The Meal Ticket" and "King Carl," Hubbell earned his nicknames with a trademark screwball that carried the Giants to three pennants in the late 1920s and 1930s. He actually threw two different screwballs, a sidearm pitch that dropped down and away from right-handed batters and faster, overhand throw that broke more sharply.
In fact, his left arm was permanently damaged by all the screwballs. The Cardinals’ Pepper Martin said “his left hand turns the wrong way” and called him a freak. “No wonder he’s such a good pitcher,” Martin added. And the great writer Jim Murray wrote that his left arm “looks as if he put it on in the dark.”
Still, it was no doubt worth it for Hubbell. His accomplishments are many: 46 1/3 consecutive scoreless innings, five 20-win seasons, three ERA championships. But his most famous feat came in the 1934 All-Star game, when he struck out five future Hall of Famers in a row—Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, Al Simmons, and Joe Cronin.
1929: Giants' hurler Carl Hubbell becomes the first left-hander in 13 seasons to throw a no-hitter as he beats the Pirates, 11-0.
Let me tell you more about Carl Hubbell.
Known as both "The Meal Ticket" and "King Carl," Hubbell earned his nicknames with a trademark screwball that carried the Giants to three pennants in the late 1920s and 1930s. He actually threw two different screwballs, a sidearm pitch that dropped down and away from right-handed batters and faster, overhand throw that broke more sharply.
In fact, his left arm was permanently damaged by all the screwballs. The Cardinals’ Pepper Martin said “his left hand turns the wrong way” and called him a freak. “No wonder he’s such a good pitcher,” Martin added. And the great writer Jim Murray wrote that his left arm “looks as if he put it on in the dark.”
Still, it was no doubt worth it for Hubbell. His accomplishments are many: 46 1/3 consecutive scoreless innings, five 20-win seasons, three ERA championships. But his most famous feat came in the 1934 All-Star game, when he struck out five future Hall of Famers in a row—Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, Al Simmons, and Joe Cronin.
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
Negro Leagues Draft?
A story today from AP had this headline: "MLB plans to hold ceremonial draft of living Negro Leagues players."
The only reaction to something like that is, "What?!?"
Here's the rest of the story
Now, I'm all in favor of giving the Negro leagues more press and all, but... what?
So I visited MLB.com and read their story, and I was still scratching my head until I got to the real gist of the story:
OK, now it's starting to make sense. At least 30 elderly Negro league veterans are going to get some money from Major League Baseball as compensation for the wrongs of earlier regimes. Since the Negro leagues shut down about 50 years ago, any surviving veteran is at least 70 years old, and they could use the money.
Still, this strikes me as a publicity stunt. (Wait, publicity stunt, Bud Selig... now that's a surprise.) If MLB really wanted to do something for old Negro leaguers, how about a true retirement package for ALL living players? How about putting money into the Negro leagues museum in Kansas City?
I guess I should be happy that they're doing something, but this just doesn't pass the smell test with me.
The only reaction to something like that is, "What?!?"
Here's the rest of the story
NEW YORK -- Major League Baseball will hold a ceremonial draft of living former Negro Leagues players before its annual amateur draft June 6.
Those selected will represent Negro Leaguers players who didn't have the chance to play for major league teams, the commissioner's office said Tuesday. MLB was not sure how many former Negro Leagues players are living.
Now, I'm all in favor of giving the Negro leagues more press and all, but... what?
So I visited MLB.com and read their story, and I was still scratching my head until I got to the real gist of the story:
Each team will compensate the player it selects with a stipend, Solomon said. Major League Baseball will pick up the travel expenses for each player (and a companion) to the Draft headquarters in Orlando.
OK, now it's starting to make sense. At least 30 elderly Negro league veterans are going to get some money from Major League Baseball as compensation for the wrongs of earlier regimes. Since the Negro leagues shut down about 50 years ago, any surviving veteran is at least 70 years old, and they could use the money.
Still, this strikes me as a publicity stunt. (Wait, publicity stunt, Bud Selig... now that's a surprise.) If MLB really wanted to do something for old Negro leaguers, how about a true retirement package for ALL living players? How about putting money into the Negro leagues museum in Kansas City?
I guess I should be happy that they're doing something, but this just doesn't pass the smell test with me.
Monday, May 5, 2008
Baseball Song Followup
Following up on last week's post about "Van Lingle Mungo"...
There's another great baseball song that you should know about: "Talkin' Baseball: Willie, Mickey, and the Duke" by Terry Cashman. I've just started singing it to my daughter, and she loves it just as much as "Van Lingle Mungo." I don't think she has any idea what it's about (baseball in the 1950s) or what a "willie mickey and the duke" is but she just loves the melodies, and I love singing it to her.
"Talkin' Baseball" is just one of Terry Cashman's homages to baseball. He also wrote versions of the song for a variety of teams, and he wrote one for that great episode of "The Simpsons" where Mr. Burns recruits professional baseball players to compete in a charity softball game.
In the past, I've also sung "The D-O-D-G-E-R-S Song" by Danny Kaye, but that's not really a bedtime song. Too much action.
The reason I know the words to all these songs is that for many years I've own a CD called "Baseball's Greatest Hits," which compiles just what the name implies: great baseball songs. It's got "Joltin' Joe DiMaggio," "I Love Mickey," and many more. It also has a dramatic reading of "Casey at the Bat" by the man who made it famous, De Wolf Hopper, back around the turn of the century, and a clip of audio captured by a reporter who talked to Tommy Lasorda after Dave Kingman hit three home runs against Tommy's Dodgers. It is a masterpiece of profanity that has to be heard to be believed.
If you want to get these songs, here are some links to make it easy:
Van Lingle Mungo via iTunes
Terry Cashman's Greatest Baseball Hits via iTunes
Baseball's Greatest Hits via Amazon.com.
There's another great baseball song that you should know about: "Talkin' Baseball: Willie, Mickey, and the Duke" by Terry Cashman. I've just started singing it to my daughter, and she loves it just as much as "Van Lingle Mungo." I don't think she has any idea what it's about (baseball in the 1950s) or what a "willie mickey and the duke" is but she just loves the melodies, and I love singing it to her.
"Talkin' Baseball" is just one of Terry Cashman's homages to baseball. He also wrote versions of the song for a variety of teams, and he wrote one for that great episode of "The Simpsons" where Mr. Burns recruits professional baseball players to compete in a charity softball game.
In the past, I've also sung "The D-O-D-G-E-R-S Song" by Danny Kaye, but that's not really a bedtime song. Too much action.
The reason I know the words to all these songs is that for many years I've own a CD called "Baseball's Greatest Hits," which compiles just what the name implies: great baseball songs. It's got "Joltin' Joe DiMaggio," "I Love Mickey," and many more. It also has a dramatic reading of "Casey at the Bat" by the man who made it famous, De Wolf Hopper, back around the turn of the century, and a clip of audio captured by a reporter who talked to Tommy Lasorda after Dave Kingman hit three home runs against Tommy's Dodgers. It is a masterpiece of profanity that has to be heard to be believed.
If you want to get these songs, here are some links to make it easy:
Van Lingle Mungo via iTunes
Terry Cashman's Greatest Baseball Hits via iTunes
Baseball's Greatest Hits via Amazon.com.
Friday, May 2, 2008
Van Lingle Mungo
So there's this great baseball song called "Van Lingle Mungo," written and performed by Dave Frishberg, that I've listened to and loved for years. If you don't know about it, you owe it to yourself to check it out.
The story is that one day back in the late sixties, Frishberg, a songwriter, was flipping through the Macmillan Baseball Encyclopedia when he came upon the listing for Van Lingle Mungo, a journeyman pitcher from the 1930s. He immediately loved the melody of the name, and soon discovered many other mellifluous names in the Encyclopedia. So he wrote a lovely song using only the names of classic baseball players.
Read the lyrics here. That page quotes a story by Frishberg about what happened when he met the real Van Lingle Mungo on a talk show. Great stuff.
I bring it up because if you have small children, as I do, and you're a baseball fan, as I am, the song makes a GREAT bedtime lullaby. I've been singing it to my kids for years, and my daughter, who's 4, loves it. She knows a lot of the words, and now when we sing it, it's more of a duet. Her favorite player is Pinky May.
The story is that one day back in the late sixties, Frishberg, a songwriter, was flipping through the Macmillan Baseball Encyclopedia when he came upon the listing for Van Lingle Mungo, a journeyman pitcher from the 1930s. He immediately loved the melody of the name, and soon discovered many other mellifluous names in the Encyclopedia. So he wrote a lovely song using only the names of classic baseball players.
Read the lyrics here. That page quotes a story by Frishberg about what happened when he met the real Van Lingle Mungo on a talk show. Great stuff.
I bring it up because if you have small children, as I do, and you're a baseball fan, as I am, the song makes a GREAT bedtime lullaby. I've been singing it to my kids for years, and my daughter, who's 4, loves it. She knows a lot of the words, and now when we sing it, it's more of a duet. Her favorite player is Pinky May.
Thursday, May 1, 2008
Ten Essential Baseball Books
Fellow blogger Alex Belth of Bronx Banter asked 55 serious baseball fans to name their 10 essential baseball books (read the entire post here). I don't know Alex and he didn't ask me for my thoughts, but I thought I'd jump on the bandwagon and provide my list.
As an obsessive, I've got over 250 baseball books in my library at home (actually, they're in boxes in my garage, sorted alphabetically by author so I can find them; I keep track of them using cool Mac software called Delicious Library).
Anyway, my list of 10 essential baseball books, organized into 10 topics.
1. General history: Every baseball fan should own a general history of the game. I have a strong affection for an old book called The Image of their Greatness by Lawrence Ritter, but it's been out of print for years. So I would recommend The Ultimate Baseball Book by Dan Okrent.
2. Business: Baseball fans should know about the business of baseball, and one recent book in particular give the clearest explanations of that subject--Moneyball by Michael Lewis. It's also a great story, told by a master storyteller.
3. Negro leagues: These leagues are as much a part of the history of the game as Babe Ruth, Kenesaw Mountain Landis, and Willie Mays. There are a number of wonderful books out there, and a lot of people still recommend the first book on the subject, Only the Ball Was White, which was published in the late 1960s. I think the more recent books do a better job describing what life in the Negro leagues was really like, so I'm going to recommend Shades of Glory: The Negro Leagues and the Story of African-American Baseball, edited by Lawrence Hogan.
4. Jackie Robinson: There's no shortage of books on the topic of Jackie Robinson and the breaking of baseball's color line, including a new book, Opening Day, about his first season. I'm going to recommend the first true study of the event--Baseball's Great Experiment by Jules Tygiel, now available in a new edition.
5. Statistics: The best statistical analysis year in, year out is produced by the gang at Baseball Prospectus. I recommend that everyone get the latest Baseball Prospectus annual, where they'll get analysis not only of stats but also of acquisitions, managerial decisions, and more. It really will change the way you look at baseball.
6. Essays: One of the best baseball writers of all time is Roger Angell, and you can't go wrong with any of his collections. I'll offer up one his book that anthologizes his writings: Once More Around the Ballpark.
7. Biography: My favorite baseball biography isn't the classic biography of Babe Ruth by Robert Creamer, which a lot of people love, but rather the recent book Joe DiMaggio: The Hero's Life by Richard Ben Cramer. It presents an unvarnished portrait of what it was like to be the most famous ballplayer in America. A lot of people don't like it because it presents DiMaggio's flaws alongside his virtues, but that's exactly what I do like about it.
8. Autobiography: Lots to choose from here, but I'm going to go with a classic--Ball Four by Jim Bouton. It's smart, it's funny, it's revealing, and it drove baseball executives crazy when it was published in 1970.
9. Bill James: Bill James deserves a category all to himself because he has influenced so many of today's baseball writers and thinkers, everybody from ESPN.com columnist Rob Neyer to Oakland A's GM Billy Beane to myself. He has a new book out called The Bill James Gold Mine, but the book to get is The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. It has everything: history, stats, player rankings, untold stories, you name it.
10. Fiction: I have to admit that I don't read much fiction, but I have read these four classic baseball novels--Shoeless Joe by W.P. Kinsella, The Natural by Bernard Malamud, The Southpaw by Mark Harris, and The Great American Novel by Philip Roth. I can't really pick between them, so I'm going just going to list all of them.
So there you go: the books you need to start or augment your baseball library. Happy reading!
As an obsessive, I've got over 250 baseball books in my library at home (actually, they're in boxes in my garage, sorted alphabetically by author so I can find them; I keep track of them using cool Mac software called Delicious Library).
Anyway, my list of 10 essential baseball books, organized into 10 topics.
1. General history: Every baseball fan should own a general history of the game. I have a strong affection for an old book called The Image of their Greatness by Lawrence Ritter, but it's been out of print for years. So I would recommend The Ultimate Baseball Book by Dan Okrent.
2. Business: Baseball fans should know about the business of baseball, and one recent book in particular give the clearest explanations of that subject--Moneyball by Michael Lewis. It's also a great story, told by a master storyteller.
3. Negro leagues: These leagues are as much a part of the history of the game as Babe Ruth, Kenesaw Mountain Landis, and Willie Mays. There are a number of wonderful books out there, and a lot of people still recommend the first book on the subject, Only the Ball Was White, which was published in the late 1960s. I think the more recent books do a better job describing what life in the Negro leagues was really like, so I'm going to recommend Shades of Glory: The Negro Leagues and the Story of African-American Baseball, edited by Lawrence Hogan.
4. Jackie Robinson: There's no shortage of books on the topic of Jackie Robinson and the breaking of baseball's color line, including a new book, Opening Day, about his first season. I'm going to recommend the first true study of the event--Baseball's Great Experiment by Jules Tygiel, now available in a new edition.
5. Statistics: The best statistical analysis year in, year out is produced by the gang at Baseball Prospectus. I recommend that everyone get the latest Baseball Prospectus annual, where they'll get analysis not only of stats but also of acquisitions, managerial decisions, and more. It really will change the way you look at baseball.
6. Essays: One of the best baseball writers of all time is Roger Angell, and you can't go wrong with any of his collections. I'll offer up one his book that anthologizes his writings: Once More Around the Ballpark.
7. Biography: My favorite baseball biography isn't the classic biography of Babe Ruth by Robert Creamer, which a lot of people love, but rather the recent book Joe DiMaggio: The Hero's Life by Richard Ben Cramer. It presents an unvarnished portrait of what it was like to be the most famous ballplayer in America. A lot of people don't like it because it presents DiMaggio's flaws alongside his virtues, but that's exactly what I do like about it.
8. Autobiography: Lots to choose from here, but I'm going to go with a classic--Ball Four by Jim Bouton. It's smart, it's funny, it's revealing, and it drove baseball executives crazy when it was published in 1970.
9. Bill James: Bill James deserves a category all to himself because he has influenced so many of today's baseball writers and thinkers, everybody from ESPN.com columnist Rob Neyer to Oakland A's GM Billy Beane to myself. He has a new book out called The Bill James Gold Mine, but the book to get is The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract. It has everything: history, stats, player rankings, untold stories, you name it.
10. Fiction: I have to admit that I don't read much fiction, but I have read these four classic baseball novels--Shoeless Joe by W.P. Kinsella, The Natural by Bernard Malamud, The Southpaw by Mark Harris, and The Great American Novel by Philip Roth. I can't really pick between them, so I'm going just going to list all of them.
So there you go: the books you need to start or augment your baseball library. Happy reading!
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