Yesterday I talked about Joe Gordon, who is on the short list for Hall of Fame induction by the Veterans Committee. Today I'll take on the case of Vern Stephens.
Vern Stephens
When I first became aware of Vern Stephens, I was shocked that I hadn't heard of him before. He doesn't appear in many history books, but his statistics are eye-popping. I invite you to visit his page on Baseball-Reference.com for a taste. If you thought Ernie Banks was the first slugging shortstop, you've completely missed out on Vern "Junior" Stephens. From age 21 through 29, he was about as good as it gets: a middle infielder who hits for power, has a pretty good batting eye, and drives in runs. He took his talents to an entirely new level after being traded in November 1947 to the Red Sox, where he drove in 137, 159, and 144 runs his first three years in Boston.
Of course, there's a reason he could drive in that many runs: he had baseball's greatest on-base machine, Ted Williams, batting in front of him. In fact, in 1949, both Stephens and Williams drove in 159 runs (teammate Bobby Doerr picked up the scraps with 109 RBIs himself).
At that point, Stephens had built himself a Hall of Fame-caliber career. Then it all fell apart. According to a biographical article about Stephens by Mark Armour published in the SABR Bio Project, Stephens injured his knee in 1951 and never got healthy again. He was only 30 years old, and perhaps today with modern medicine, Stephens could have rehabbed his knee and gotten back to baseball. But alas, he didn't, and his career basically ended, though he hung on for a few futile years.
His life ended the same, sad way: In 1968, he suffered a heart attack while working a construction job and died. He was only 48.
The case for Stephens: He was a powerful hitter who played a key defensive position. He racked up big numbers in his 20s.
The case against Stephens: Injuries curtailed his production before he could post big career numbers. He finished with 247 home runs and 1,147 RBIs, not Hall of Fame-caliber.
My opinion: Not really a close call. Stephens is an interesting player, and if he had continued posting big numbers until age 35 or so, he might belong in the Hall. But he didn't, and he doesn't.
Showing posts with label boston red sox. Show all posts
Showing posts with label boston red sox. Show all posts
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Hall of Fame Watch: David Ortiz
I'm going to start a regular feature on the blog assessing the Hall of Fame chances of a variety of borderline players. I'm going to try not to focus on the obvious candidates (Maddux, Pujols, etc.) and instead discuss the guys with question marks.
First up: David Ortiz.
Ortiz has two things working for him and two things working against him:
For:
1. Clutch play and postseason success
2. Big seasons for a famous, winning team
Against
1. Late start
2. No defensive value
Let's take those one at a time:
Clutch play and postseason success
If you look at his overall postseason statistics, you'll realize they don't differ greatly from his regular-season production: .317 BA, .418 OBP, .587 SLG in the postseason vs. .288, .382, .554 in the regular season. He clearly steps up his game in the playoffs and World Series, but it's not like he goes hog wild.
Still, his performance in the 2004 ALCS alone has cemented his reputation in the annals of clutch hitting. He drove home the winning run in extra innings two days in a row, and he notched 11 RBIs overall. He did just as well in that year's Division Series. And in the 2007 Division Series, he was lights out: an .846 on-base percentage (!) and 1.571 slugging percentage (!!!).
Big Seasons for a Successful Team
Just check out his entry on Baseball-Reference.com and pay particular attention to his numbers since joining the Red Sox in 2003. He's finished in the top 5 in MVP voting every year from 2003 through 2007, and his team has made the postseason four times. "Big Papi" was one of the key cogs in the the most successful Red Sox machine since 1918.
Now the negatives.
Late start
This isn't totally accurate. He actually came up with the Twins in 1997 at age 21. If he had started producing big seasons within the next three years, as many Hall of Famers do, then he would be a no-brainer. But the Twins released him at age 26 after he failed to live up to their expectations. Did they give him enough of a chance to succeed? Probably not. But the fact that he was 27 before he established himself as a star works against his Hall of Fame chances because he probably won't achieve magic numbers like 500 home runs or 1500 RBIs.
With a body like his (he's listed at 6-4, 230 pounds, but I suspect he's more like 250), he's a huge injury risk. Look at Mo Vaughn, a very similar player in both skills and body type. He was washed up at 34. Baseball history is filled with big sluggers whose careers fall apart after age 34 or so. Carlos Delgado is in the same boat.
Only 32 now, Ortiz may very well continue producing into his late 30s. If he hits 35 homers a year for the next 5 years, or if he'd done it from age 22 through 26, he would be a lock for the Hall. I'm just saying the odds are against him.
No defensive value
Ortiz has spent 80% of his career at the DH spot, and that percentage only figures to go higher as time goes on since he almost never plays first base anymore. That doesn't necessarily doom him, of course, because the Hall of Fame is only now beginning to sort out how it deals with the first generations of players who came up in the DH era. I think it simply means his road will be tougher than players who contributed both offensively and defensively.
Bottom line
I think Ortiz needs at least 400 career home runs to even have a chance. He's about 125 shy, but at his current rate, he could reach that mark in three injury-free seasons. With his injury risk and his probably natural decline in skills, I would place his chances of doing that at about 50%.
Even 400 home runs would be kind of low for a 1B/DH in this modern lively ball era, but I think HOF voters would fondly remember his smile, his clutch play, and his association with the first Red Sox championships in 86 years, and vote him in on the second or third ballot.
If he somehow reached 500 home runs, he'd be a lock, but that's a very tall order.
Big Papi is very easy to root for, so I'll be on his side.
First up: David Ortiz.
Ortiz has two things working for him and two things working against him:
For:
1. Clutch play and postseason success
2. Big seasons for a famous, winning team
Against
1. Late start
2. No defensive value
Let's take those one at a time:
Clutch play and postseason success
If you look at his overall postseason statistics, you'll realize they don't differ greatly from his regular-season production: .317 BA, .418 OBP, .587 SLG in the postseason vs. .288, .382, .554 in the regular season. He clearly steps up his game in the playoffs and World Series, but it's not like he goes hog wild.
Still, his performance in the 2004 ALCS alone has cemented his reputation in the annals of clutch hitting. He drove home the winning run in extra innings two days in a row, and he notched 11 RBIs overall. He did just as well in that year's Division Series. And in the 2007 Division Series, he was lights out: an .846 on-base percentage (!) and 1.571 slugging percentage (!!!).
Big Seasons for a Successful Team
Just check out his entry on Baseball-Reference.com and pay particular attention to his numbers since joining the Red Sox in 2003. He's finished in the top 5 in MVP voting every year from 2003 through 2007, and his team has made the postseason four times. "Big Papi" was one of the key cogs in the the most successful Red Sox machine since 1918.
Now the negatives.
Late start
This isn't totally accurate. He actually came up with the Twins in 1997 at age 21. If he had started producing big seasons within the next three years, as many Hall of Famers do, then he would be a no-brainer. But the Twins released him at age 26 after he failed to live up to their expectations. Did they give him enough of a chance to succeed? Probably not. But the fact that he was 27 before he established himself as a star works against his Hall of Fame chances because he probably won't achieve magic numbers like 500 home runs or 1500 RBIs.
With a body like his (he's listed at 6-4, 230 pounds, but I suspect he's more like 250), he's a huge injury risk. Look at Mo Vaughn, a very similar player in both skills and body type. He was washed up at 34. Baseball history is filled with big sluggers whose careers fall apart after age 34 or so. Carlos Delgado is in the same boat.
Only 32 now, Ortiz may very well continue producing into his late 30s. If he hits 35 homers a year for the next 5 years, or if he'd done it from age 22 through 26, he would be a lock for the Hall. I'm just saying the odds are against him.
No defensive value
Ortiz has spent 80% of his career at the DH spot, and that percentage only figures to go higher as time goes on since he almost never plays first base anymore. That doesn't necessarily doom him, of course, because the Hall of Fame is only now beginning to sort out how it deals with the first generations of players who came up in the DH era. I think it simply means his road will be tougher than players who contributed both offensively and defensively.
Bottom line
I think Ortiz needs at least 400 career home runs to even have a chance. He's about 125 shy, but at his current rate, he could reach that mark in three injury-free seasons. With his injury risk and his probably natural decline in skills, I would place his chances of doing that at about 50%.
Even 400 home runs would be kind of low for a 1B/DH in this modern lively ball era, but I think HOF voters would fondly remember his smile, his clutch play, and his association with the first Red Sox championships in 86 years, and vote him in on the second or third ballot.
If he somehow reached 500 home runs, he'd be a lock, but that's a very tall order.
Big Papi is very easy to root for, so I'll be on his side.
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